南风金融网 - 中原最权威行情财经门户

热门关键词:  缪学刚  www.ymwears.cn  xxx  as  
热门: 北大数字金融公开课内容回 【MLinEcon文献推送第15期 对付勒索软件的利器:二级 【Econ. for COVID-19文献3 【Econ. for COVID-19文献6 还在为云存储掏冤枉钱?那

【Econ. for COVID-19文献37】COVID-19在美国产生的经济影响

来源:南风金融网 作者:南风金融网 人气: 发布时间:2020-05-20 10:06:07

TitleWhat Will be the Economic Impact of COVID-19 inthe US? Rough Estimates of Disease Scenarios

?

AuthorsAndrew Atkeson

?

AbstractThis note is intended to introduce economiststo a simple SIR model of the progression of COVID-19 in the United States overthe next 12-18 months. An SIR model is a Markov model of the spread of anepidemic in a population in which the total population is divided intocategories of being susceptible to the disease (S), actively infected with thedisease (I), and recovered (or dead) and no longer contagious (R). How anepidemic plays out over time is determined by the transition rates betweenthese three states. This model allows for quantitative statements regarding thetradeoff between the severity and timing of suppression of the disease throughsocial distancing and the progression of the disease in the population. Exampleapplications of the model are provided. Special attention is given to thequestion of if and when the fraction of active infections in the populationexceeds 1% (at which point the health system is forecast to be severelychallenged) and 10% (which may result in severe staffing shortages for keyfinancial and economic infrastructure) as well as the cumulative burden of thedisease over an 18 month horizon.

?

ReferenceAtkeson,Andrew G., What will be the Economic Impact of COVID-19 in the US? RoughEstimates of Disease Scenarios (March 2020). NBER Working Paper No. w26867.


【Download】http://www.nber.org/papers/w26867


责任编辑:南风金融网

最火资讯

首页 | 财经资讯 | 金融理财 | 价格行情

豫ICP备12016580号  技术支持:南风金融网

电脑版 | 移动版