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【Econ. for COVID-19文献38】埃博拉疫情对美国14年中期选举的影响

来源:南风金融网 作者:南风金融网 人气: 发布时间:2020-05-21 18:15:48

TitleThe Virus of Fear: The Political Impact ofEbola in the U.S.

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AuthorsFilipe R. Campante, Emilio Depetris-Chauvin,Ruben Durante

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AbstractWe study how fear can affect the behavior of voters and politicians by looking at the Ebola scare that hit the U.S. a month before the 2014 midterm elections. Exploiting the timing and location of the four cases diagnosed in the U.S., we show that heightened concern about Ebola, as measured by online activity, led to a lower vote share for the Democrats incongressional and gubernatorial elections, as well as lower turnout, despite no evidence of a general anti-incumbent effect (including on President Obama's approval ratings). We then show that politicians responded to the Ebola scareby mentioning the disease in connection with immigration and terrorism in newsletters and campaign ads. This response came only from Republicans, especially those facing competitive races, suggesting a strategic use of the issue in conjunction with topics perceived as favorable to them. Survey evidence suggests that voters responded with increasingly conservative attitudes on immigration but not on other ideologically-charged issues. Taken together, our findings indicate that emotional reactions associated with fear can have astrong electoral impact, that politicians perceive and act strategically inresponse to this, and that the process is mediated by issues that can beplausibly associated with the specific fear-triggering factor.

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ReferenceFilipe R.Campante, Emilio Depetris-Chauvin, Ruben Durante, The Virus of Fear: ThePolitical Impact of Ebola in the U.S., (March 2020), NBER Working Paper No.w26897.

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【Download】http://www.nber.org/papers/w26897


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