南风金融网 - 中原最权威行情财经门户

热门关键词:  缪学刚  www.ymwears.cn  xxx    as
热门: 北大数字金融公开课内容回 对付勒索软件的利器:二级 还在为云存储掏冤枉钱?那 【Workshop for MLinEcon第 【Econ. for COVID-19文献6 直播预告 | “经世微语课堂

【Econ. for COVID-19文献5】前车之鉴:1918大流感导致经济衰退6%

来源:南风金融网 作者:南风金融网 人气: 发布时间:2020-04-09 09:21:49

TitleThe Coronavirus and the Great InfluenzaPandemic: Lessons from the “Spanish Flu” for the Coronavirus's PotentialEffects on Mortality and Economic Activity

?

AuthorsRobert J. Barro, José F. Ursua, and Joanna Weng

?

【Abstract】Mortality and economic contraction during the 1918-1920 Great Influenza Pandemic provide plausible upper bounds for outcomes under the coronavirus(COVID-19). Data for 43 countries imply flu-related deaths in 1918-1920 of 39 million, 2.0 percent of world population, implying 150 million deaths when applied to current population. Regressions with annual information on flu deaths 1918-1920 and war deaths during WWI imply flu-generated economic declines for GDP and consumption in the typical country of 6 and 8 percent, respectively. There is also some evidence that higher flu death rates decreased realized real returns on stocks and, especially, on short-term government bills.

?

【Reference】Barro, Robert J. andUrsúa, José F. and Wang, Joanna, The Coronavirus and the Great InfluenzaPandemic: Lessons from the “Spanish Flu” for the Coronavirus's PotentialEffects on Mortality and Economic Activity (March 2020). NBER Working Paper No.w26866.

?

【Download】http://www.nber.org/papers/w26866


责任编辑:南风金融网

最火资讯

首页 | 财经资讯 | 金融理财 | 价格行情

豫ICP备12016580号  技术支持:南风金融网

电脑版 | 移动版