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【Econ. for COVID-19文献2】1918大流感启示录:行动越快,复苏越快

来源:南风金融网 作者:南风金融网 人气: 发布时间:2020-04-05 09:16:35

TitlePandemics Depress the Economy, Public Health InterventionsDo Not: Evidence from the 1918 Flu

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AuthorsSergio Correia, Stephan Luck, and Emil Verner

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AbstractWhat are the economic consequences of ani nfluenza pandemic? And given the pandemic, what are the economic costs andbenefits of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI)? Using geographic variationin mortality during the 1918 Flu Pandemic in the U.S., we find that more exposed areas experience a sharp and persistent decline in economic activity.The estimates imply that the pandemic reduced manufacturing output by 18%. The downturn is driven by both supply and demand-side channels. Further, building on findings from the epidemiology literature establishing that NPIs decreaseinfluenza mortality, we use variation in the timing and intensity of NPIs across U.S. cities to study their economic effects. We find that cities that intervened earlier and more aggressively do not perform worse and, if anything,grow faster after the pandemic is over. Our findings thus indicate that NPIs not only lower mortality; they also mitigate the adverse economic consequencesof a pandemic.


【Reference】Correia, Sergio and Luck, Stephan and Verner, Emil, Pandemics Depressthe Economy, Public Health Interventions Do Not: Evidence from the 1918 Flu(March 30, 2020). Available at SSRN:?https://ssrn.com/abstract=3561560

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Downloadhttps://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3561560


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