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美国,危险了....

来源:南风金融网 作者:南风金融网 人气: 发布时间:2020-03-25 23:51:28

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来源:微观系列

一,经融危机下的能源转机


世界各国在面对经济危机时就只有一剂药方,量化宽松,量化宽松,量化宽松(QE)


央行通过各种手段,变相的把大量钞票灌入市场


但就像你总用抗生素,药效会越来越差,甚至病菌都会产生免疫一样


每次危机,各国除了印钞票别无他法,用久了效果也越来越差,最后就是无效


3月17日,美国宣布投入1万亿美元救市,1万亿美元什么概念?2008年金融危机时,美国也只投入7800亿


这次危机比2008年更严重


但生病的经济体对老套的药剂早产生免疫,3月17日,宣布投入1万亿


3月18日,美股再次熔断,这是十天内美股的第四次熔断




169. Don't let yesterday use up too much of today. 别留念昨天了,把握好今天吧。(Will Rogers) 170. If you are not brave enough, no one will back you up. 你不勇敢,没人替你坚强。 171. If you don't build your dream, someone will hire you to build theirs. 如果你没有梦想,那么你只能为别人的梦想打工。 172. Beauty is all around, if you just open your heart to see. 只要你给自己机会,你会发现你的世界可以很美丽。 173. The difference in winning and losing is most often...not quitting. 赢与输的差别通常是--不放弃。(华特·迪士尼) 174. I am ordinary yet unique. 我很平凡,但我独一无二。 175. I like people who make me laugh in spite of myself. 我喜欢那些让我笑起来的人,就算是我不想笑的时候。 176. Image a new story for your life and start living it. 为你的生命想一个全新剧本,并去倾情出演吧! 177. I'd rather be a happy fool than a sad sage. 做个悲伤的智者,不如做个开心的傻子。 178. The future belongs to those who believe in the beauty of their dreams. 未来属于那些相信梦想之美的人。(埃莉诺·罗斯福) 179. Even if you get no applause, you should accept a curtain call gracefully and appreciate your own efforts. 即使没有人为你鼓掌,也要优雅的谢幕,感谢自己的认真付出。 180. Don't let dream just be your dream. 别让梦想只停留在梦里。 181. A day without laughter is a day wasted. 没有笑声的一天是浪费了的一天。(卓别林) 182. Travel and see the world; afterwards, you will be able to put your concerns in perspective. 去旅行吧,见的世面多了,你会发现原来在意的那些结根本算不了什么。 183. The key to acquiring proficiency in any task is repetition. 任何事情成功关键都是熟能生巧。《生活大爆炸》 184. You can be happy no matter what. 开心一点吧,管它会怎样。 185. A good plan today is better than a perfect plan tomorrow. 今天的好计划胜过明天的完美计划。 186. Nothing is impossible, the word itself says 'I'm possible'! 一切皆有可能!“不可能”的意思是:“不,可能。”(奥黛丽·赫本) 187. Life isn't fair, but no matter your circumstances, you have to give it your all. 生活是不公平的,不管你的境遇如何,你只能全力以赴。 188. No matter how hard it is, just keep going because you only fail when you give up. 无论多么艰难,都要继续前进,因为只有你放弃的那一刻,你才输了。 ? ? ?When Paul Jobs was mustered out of the Coast Guard after World War II, he made a wager with his crewmates. They had arrived in San Francisco, where their ship was decommissioned, and Paul bet that he would find himself a wife within two weeks. He was a taut, tattooed engine mechanic, six feet tall, with a passing resemblance to James Dean. But it wasn’t his looks that got him a date with Clara Hagopian, a sweet-humored daughter of Armenian immigrants. It was the fact that he and his friends had a car, unlike the group she had originally planned to go out with that evening. Ten days later, in March 1946, Paul got engaged to Clara and won his wager. It would turn out to be a happy marriage, one that lasted until death parted them more than forty years later. Paul Reinhold Jobs had been raised on a dairy farm in Germantown, Wisconsin. Even though his father was an alcoholic and sometimes abusive, Paul ended up with a gentle and calm disposition under his leathery exterior. After dropping out of high school, he wandered through the Midwest picking up work as a mechanic until, at age nineteen, he joined the Coast Guard, even though he didn’t know how to swim. He was deployed on the USS General M. C. Meigs and spent much of the war ferrying troops to Italy for General Patton. His talent as a machinist and fireman earned him commendations, but he occasionally found himself in minor trouble and never rose above the rank of seaman. Clara was born in New Jersey, where her parents had landed after fleeing the Turks in Armenia, and they moved to the Mission District of San Francisco when she was a child. She had a secret that she rarely mentioned to anyone: She had been married before, but her husband had been killed in the war. So when she met Paul Jobs on that first date, she was primed to start a new life. Clara, however, loved San Francisco, and in 1952 she convinced her husband to move back there. They got an apartment in the Sunset District facing the Pacific, just south of Golden Gate Park, and he took a job working for a finance company as a “repo man,” picking the locks of cars whose owners hadn’t paid their loans and repossessing them. He also bought, repaired, and sold some of the cars, making a decent enough living in the process. There was, however, something missing in their lives. They wanted children, but Clara had suffered an ectopic pregnancy, in which the fertilized egg was implanted in a fallopian tube rather than the uterus, and she had been unable to have any. So by 1955, after nine years of marriage, they were looking to adopt a child. Like Paul Jobs, Joanne Schieble was from a rural Wisconsin family of German heritage. Her father, Arthur Schieble, had immigrated to the outskirts of Green Bay, where he and his wife owned a mink farm and dabbled successfully in various other businesses, including real estate and photoengraving. He was very strict, especially regarding his daughter’s relationships, and he had strongly disapproved of her first love, an artist who was not a Catholic. Thus it was no surprise that he threatened to cut Joanne off completely when, as a graduate student at the University of Wisconsin, she fell in love with Abdulfattah “John” Jandali, a Muslim teaching assistant from Syria. Jandali was the youngest of nine children in a prominent Syrian family. His father owned oil refineries and multiple other businesses, with large holdings in Damascus and Homs, and at one point pretty much controlled the price of wheat in the region. His mothe凝固的熔岩流。火星上常常有猛烈的大风,大风扬起沙尘能形成可以覆盖火星全球的特大型沙尘暴。每次沙尘暴可持续数个星期。火星两极的冰冠和火星大气中含有水份。从火星表面获得的探测数据证明,在远古时期,火星曾经有过液态的水,而且水量特别大。 [51] 土星是离太阳第六颗行星,直径120536㎞,体积仅次于木星。主要由氢组成,还有少量的氦与微量元素,内部的核心包括岩石和冰,外围由数层金属氢和气体包裹着。地球距离土星13亿公里。土星的引力比地球强2.5倍,能够牵引太阳系内其它行星,使地球处于一个椭圆轨道中运行,并且与太阳保持适当距离,适宜生命繁衍。当土星轨道倾斜20度将使地球轨道比金星轨道更接近太阳,同时,这将导致火星完全离开太阳系。 [52] ?土星是已知唯一密度小于水的行星,假如能够将土星放入一个巨大的浴池之中,它将可以漂浮起来。土星有一个巨大的磁气圈和一个狂风肆虐的大气层,赤道附近的风速可达1800千米/时。在环绕土星运行的31颗卫星中间,土卫六是最大的一颗,比水星和月球还大,也是太阳系中唯一拥有浓厚大气层的卫星。 [53] 天王星是离太阳第七颗行星,51118km。体积约为地球的65倍,在九大行星中仅次于木星和土星。天王星的大气层中83%是氢,15%为氦,2%为甲烷以及少量的乙炔和碳氢化合物。上层大气层的甲烷吸收红光,使天王星呈现蓝绿色。大气在固定纬度集结成云层,类似于木星和土星在纬线上鲜艳的条状色带。天王星云层的平均温度为零下193摄氏度。质量为8.6810±13×10??kg,相当于地球质量的14.63倍。密度较小,只有1.24克/立方厘米,为海王星密度值的74.7%。 [54] 恒星 恒星 海王星是离太阳的第八颗行星,直径49532千米。海王星绕太阳运转的轨道半径为45亿千米,公转一周需要165年。海王星的直径和天王星类似,质量比天王星略大一些。海王星和天王星的主要大气成分都是氢和氦,内部结构也极为相近,所以说海王星与天王星是一对孪生兄弟。 [55] ?海王星有太阳系最强烈的风,测量到的时速高达2100公里。海王星云顶的温度是-218 °C,是太阳系最冷的地区之一。海王星核心的温度约为7000 °C,可以和太阳的表面比较。海王星在1846年9月23日被发现,是唯一利用数学预测而非有计划的观测发现的行星。 [56] 冥王星,位于海王星以外的柯伊伯带内侧,是柯伊伯带中已知的最大天体。 [57] ?直径约为2370±20km,是地球直径的18.5%。 [58] ?2006年8月24日,国际天文学联合会大会24日投票决定,不再将传统九大行星之一的冥王星视为行星,而将其列入“矮行星”。大会通过的决议规定,“行星”指的是围绕太阳运转、自身引力足以克服其刚体力而使天体呈圆球状、能够清除其轨道附近其他物体的天体。在太阳系传统的“九大行星”中,只有水星、金星、地球、火星、木星、土星、天王星和海王星符合这些要求。冥王星由于其轨道与海王星的轨道相交,不符合新的行星定义,因此被自动降级为“矮行星”。 [59] ?冥王星的表面温度大概在-238到-228℃之间。冥王星的成份由70%岩石和30%冰水混合而成的。地表上光亮的部分可能覆盖着一些固体氮以及少量 卫星拍月球经过地球,可见清晰月球背面 卫星拍月球经过地球,可见清晰月球背面 [60] 的固体甲烷和一氧化碳,冥王星表面的黑暗部分可能是一些基本的有机物质或是由宇宙射线引发的光化学反应。冥王星的大气层主要由氮和少量的一氧化碳及甲烷组成。大气极其稀薄,地面压强只有少量微帕。 [61] 地球是离太阳第三颗行星,是我们人类的家乡,尽管地球是太阳系中一颗普通的行星,但它在许多方面都是独一无二的。比如,它是太阳系中唯一一颗面积大部分被水覆盖的行星,也是目前所知唯一一颗有生命存在的星球。质量M=5.9742 ×10^24 公斤,表面温度:t = - 30 ~ +45。 [62] ?英国科研人员在《天体生物学》杂志上报告说,如果没有小行星撞击等可能剧烈改变环境的事件发生,地球适宜人类居住的时间还剩约17.5亿年,不过人为造成的气候变化可能缩短这一时间。 [63] 彗星是由灰尘和冰块组成的太阳系中的一类小天体,绕日运动。 [64] ?科学家使用探测器对彗星的化学遗留物进行分析,发现其主要成份为氨、甲烷、硫化氢、氰化氢和甲醛。科学家得出结论称,彗星的气味闻起来像是臭鸡蛋、马尿、酒精和苦杏仁的气味综合。 [65-66] “67P/楚留莫夫-格拉希门克”彗星 “67P/楚留莫夫-格拉希门克”彗星 [67] 在太阳系的周围还包裹着一个庞大的“奥尔特云”。星云内分布着不计其数的冰块、雪团和碎石。其中的某些会受太阳引力影响飞入内太阳系,这学说,在原有的轨道(或称小天体轨道)上又增加了更多的天体运行轨道。这一模式称每颗行星都沿着一个小轨道作圆周运行,而小轨道又沿着该行星的大轨道绕地球作圆周运动。几百年之后,这一模式的漏洞越来越明显。科学家们又在这个模式上增加了许多轨道,行星就这样沿着一道又一道的轨道作圆周运动。 哥白尼想用“现代”(16世纪的)技术来改进托勒密的测量结果,以期取消一些小轨道。在长达近20年的时间里,哥白尼不辞辛劳日夜测量行星的位置,但其测量获得的结果仍然与托勒密的天体运行模式没有多少差别。 哥白尼想知道在另一个运行着的行星上观察这些行星的运行情况会是什么样的。基于这种设想,哥白尼萌发了一个念头:假如地球在运行中,那么这些行星的运行看上去会是什么情况呢?这一设想在他脑海里变得清晰起来了。一年里,哥白尼在不同的时间、不同的距离从地球上观察行星,每一个行星的情况都不相同,这是他意识到地球不可能位于星星轨道的中心。 经过20年的观测,哥白尼发现唯独太阳的周年变化不明显。这意味着地球和太阳的距离始终没有改变。如果地球不是宇宙的中心,那么宇宙的中心就是太阳。的发现才使牛顿有能力确定运动定律和万有引力定律。 哥白尼的日心宇宙体系既然是时代的产物,它就不能不受到时代的限制。反对神学的不彻底性,同时表现在哥白尼的某些观点上,他的体系是存在缺陷的。哥白尼所指的宇宙是局限在一个小的范围内的,具体来说,他的宇宙结构就是今天我们所熟知的太阳系,即以太阳为中心的天体系统。宇宙既然有它的中心,就必须有它的边界,哥白尼虽然否定了托勒玫的“九重天”,但他却保留了一层恒星天,尽管他回避了宇宙是否有限这个问题,但实际上他是相信恒星天球是宇宙的“外壳”,他仍然相信天体只能按照所谓完美的圆形轨道运动,所以哥白尼的宇宙体系,仍然包含着不动的中心天体。但是作为近代自然科学的奠基人,哥白尼的历史功绩是伟大的。确认地球不是宇宙的中心,而是行星之一,从而掀起了一场天文学上根本性的革命,是人类探求客观真理道路上的里程碑。 哥白尼的伟大成就,不仅铺平了通向近代天文学的道路,而且开创了整个自然界科学向前迈进的新时代。从哥白尼时代起,脱离教会束缚的自然科学和哲学开始获得飞跃的发展。哥白尼的科学成就,是他所处时代的产物,又转过来推动了时代的发展。 顺应时代变化 十五、六世纪的欧洲,正是从封建社会向资本主义社会转变的关键时期,在这一二百年间,社会发生了巨大的变化。14世纪ndali soon after. She held out hope, she would later tell family members, sometimes tearing up at the memory, that once they were married, she could get their 别让梦想只停留在梦里。 181. A day without laughter is a day wasted. 没有笑声的一天是浪费了的一天。(卓别林) 182. Travel and see the world; afterwards, you will be able to put your concerns in perspective. 去旅行吧,见的世面多了,你会发现原来在意的那些结根本算不了什么。 183. The key to acquiring proficiency in any task is repetition. 任何事情成功关键都是熟能生巧。《生活大爆炸》 184. You can be happy no matter what. 开心一点吧,管它会怎样。baby boy back. Arthur Schieble died in August 1955, after the adoption was finalized. Just after Christmas that year, Joanne and Abdulfattah were married in St. Philip the Apostle Catholic Church in Green Bay. He got his PhD in international politics the next year, and then they had another child, a girl named Mona. After she and Jandali divorced in 1962, Joanne embarked on a dreamy and peripatetic life that her daughter, who grew up to become the acclaimed novelist Mona Simpson, would capture in her book Anywhere but Here. Because Steve’s adoption had been closed, it would be twenty years before they would all find each other. Steve Jobs knew from an early age that he was adopted. “My parents were very open with me about that,” he recalled. He had a vivid memory of sitting on the lawn of his house, when he was six or seven years old, telling the girl who lived across the street. “So does that mean your real parents didn’t want you?” the girl asked. “Lightning bolts went off in my head,” according to Jobs. “I remember running into the house, crying. And my parents said, ‘No, you have to understand.’ They were very serious and looked me straight in the eye. They said, ‘We specifically picked you out.’ Both of my parents said that and repeated it slowly for me. And they put an emphasis on every word in that sentence.” Abandoned. Chosen. Special. Those concepts became part of who Jobs was and how he regarded himself. His closest friends think that the knowledge that he was given up at birth left some scars. “I think his desire for complete control of whatever he makes derives directly from his personality and the fact that he was abandoned at birth,” said one longtime colleague, Del Yocam. “He wants to control his environment, and he sees the product as an extension of himself.” Greg Calhoun, who became close to Jobs right after college, saw another effect. “Steve talked to me a lot about being abandoned and the pain that caused,” he said. “It made him independent. He followed the beat of a different drummer, and that came from being in a different world than he was born into.” Later in life, when he was the same age his biological father had been when he abandoned him, Jobs would father and abandon a child of his own. (He eventually took responsibility for her.) Chrisann Brennan, the mother of that child, said that being put up for adoption left Jobs “full of broken glass,” and it helps to explain some of his behavior. “He who is abandoned is an abandoner,” she said. Andy Hertzfeld, who worked with Jobs at Apple in the early 1980s, is among the few who remained close to both Brennan and Jobs. “The key question about Steve is why he can’t control himself at times from being so reflexively cruel and harmful to some people,” he said. “That goes back to being abandoned at birth. The real underlying problem was the theme of abandonment in Steve’s life.” Jobs dismissed this. “There’s some notion that because I was abandoned, I worked very hard so I could do well and make my parents wish they had me back, or some such nonsense, but that’s ridiculous,” he insisted. “Knowing I was adopted may have made me feel more independent, but I have never felt abandoned. I’ve always felt special. My parents made me feel special.” He would later bristle whenever anyone referred to Paul and Clara Jobs as his “adoptive” parents or implied that they were not his “real” parents. “They were my parents 1,000%,” he said. When speaking about his biological parents, on the other hand, he was curt: “They were my sperm and egg bank. That’s not harsh, it’s just the way it was, a sperm bank thing, nothing more.” Silicon Valley The childhood that Paul and Clara Jobs created for their new son was, in many ways, a stereotype of the late 1950s. When Steve was two they adopted a girl they named Patty, and three years later they moved to a tract house in the suburbs. The finance company where Paul worked as a repo man, CIT, had transferred him down to its Palo Alto office, but he could not afford to live there, so they landed in a subdivision in Mountain View, a less expensive town just to the south. There Paul tried to pass along his love of mechanics and cars. “Steve, this is your workbench now,” he said as he marked off a section of the table in their garage. Jobs remembered being impressed by his father’s focus on craftsmanship. “I thought my dad’s sense of design was pretty good,” he said, “because he knew how to build anything. If we needed a cabinet, he would build it. When he built our fence, he gave me a hammer so I could work with him.” Fifty years later the fence still surrounds the back and side yards of the house in Mountain View. As Jobs showed it off to me, he caressed the stockade panels and recalled a lesson that his father implanted deeply in him. It was important, his father said, to craft the backs of cabinets and fences properly, even though they were hidden. “He loved doing things right. He even cared about the look of the parts you couldn’t see.” His father continued to refurbish and resell used cars, and he festooned the garage with pictures of his favorites. He would point out the detailing of the design to his son: the lines, the vents, the chrome, the trim of the seats. After work each day, he would change into his dungarees and retreat to the garage, often with Steve tagging along. “I figured I could get him nailed down with a little mechanical ability, but he really wasn’t interested in getting his hands dirty,” Paul later recalled. “He never really cared too much about m189. It requires hard work to give off an appearance of effortlessness. 你必须十分努力,才能看起来毫不费力。 190. Life is like riding a bicycle.To keep your balance,you must keep moving. 人生就像骑单车,只有不断前进,才能保持平衡。(爱因斯坦) 191. Be thankful for what you have.You'll end up having more. 拥有一颗感恩的心,最终你会得到更多。 192. Beauty is how you feel inside, and it reflects in your eyes. 美是一种内心的感觉,并反映在你的眼睛里。(索菲亚·罗兰) 193. Friendship doubles your joys, and divides your sorrows. 朋友的作用,就是让你快乐加倍,痛苦减半。 194. When you long for something sincerely, the whole world will help you. 当你真心渴望某样东西时,整个宇宙都会来帮忙。echanical things.” “I wasn’t that into fixing cars,” Jobs admitted. “But I was eager to hang out with my dad.” Even as he was growing more aware that he had been adopted, he was becoming more attached to his father. One day when he was about eight, he discovered a photograph of his father from his time in the Coast Guard. “He’s in the engine room, and he’s got his shirt off and looks like James Dean. It was one of those Oh wow moments for a kid. Wow, oooh, my parents were actually once very young and really good-looking.” Through cars, his father gave Steve his first exposure to electronics. “My dad did not have a deep understanding of electronics, but he’d encountered it a lot in automobiles and other things he would fix. He showed me the rudiments of electronics, and I got very interested in that.” Even more interesting were the trips to scavenge for parts. “Every weekend, there’d be a junkyard trip. We’d be looking for a generator, a carburetor, all sorts of components.” He remembered watching his father negotiate at the counter. “He was a good bargainer, because he knew better than the guys at the counter what the parts should cost.” This helped fulfill the pledge his parents made when he was adopted. “My college fund came from my dad paying $50 for a Ford Falcon or some other beat-up car that didn’t run, working on it for a few weeks, and selling it for $250—and not telling the IRS.” The Jobses’ house and the others in their neighborhood were built by the real estate developer Joseph Eichler, whose company spawned more than eleven thousand homes in various California subdivisions between 1950 and 1974. Inspired by Frank Lloyd Wright’s vision of simple modern homes for the American “everyman,” Eichler built inexpensive houses that featured floor-to-ceiling glass walls, open floor plans, exposed post-and-beam construction, concrete slab floors, and lots of sliding glass doors. “Eichler did a great thing,” Jobs said on one of our walks around the neighborhood. “His houses were smart and cheap and good. They brought clean design and simple taste to lower-income people. They had awesome little features, like radiant heating in the floors. You put carpet on them, and we had nice toasty floors when we were kids.” Jobs said that his appreciation for Eichler homes instilled in him a passion for making nicely designed products for the mass market. “I love it when you can bring really great design and simple capability to something that doesn’t cost much,” he said as he pointed out the clean elegance of the houses. “It was the original vision for Apple. That’s what we tried to do with the first Mac. That’s what we did with the iPod.” Across the street from the Jobs family lived a man who had become successful as a real estate agent. “He wasn’t that bright,” Jobs recalled, “but he seemed to be making a fortune. So my dad thought, ‘I can do that.’ He worked so hard, I remember. He took these night classes, passed the license test, and got into real estate. Then the bottom fell out of the market.” As a result, the family found itself financially strapped for a year or so while Steve was in elementary school. His mother took a job as a bookkeeper for Varian Associates, a company that made scientific instruments, and they took out a second mortgage. One day his fourth-grade teacher asked him, “What is it you don’t understand about the universe?” Jobs replied, “I don’t understand why all of a sudden my dad is so broke.” He was proud that his father never adopted a servile attitude or slick style that may have made him a better salesman. “You had to suck up to people to sell real estate, and he wasn’t good at that and it wasn’t in his nature. I admired him for that.” Paul Jobs went back to being a mechanic. His father was calm and gentle, traits that his son later praised more than emulated. He was also resolute. Jobs described one exampl What made the neighborhood different from the thousands of other spindly-tree subdivisions across America was that even the ne’er-do-wells tended to be engineers. “When we moved here, there were apricot and plum orchards on all of these corners,” Jobs recalled. “But it was beginning to boom because of military investment.” He soaked up the history of the valley and developed a yearning to play his own role. Edwin Land of Polaroid later told him about being asked by Eisenhower to help build the U-2 spy plane cameras to see how real the Soviet threat was. The film was dropped in canisters and returned to the NASA Ames Research Center in Sunnyvale, not far from where Jobs lived. “The first computer terminal I ever saw was when my dad brought me to the Ames Center,” he said. “I fell totally in love with it.” Other defense contractors sprouted nearby during the 1950s. The Lockheed Missiles and Space Division, which built submarine-launched ballistic missiles, was founded in 1956 next to the NASA Center; by the time Jobs moved to the area four years later, it employed twenty thousand people. A few hundred yards away, Westinghouse built facilities that produced tubes and electrical transformers for the missile systems. “You had all these military companies on the cutting edge,” he recalled. “It was mysterious and high-tech and made living here very exciting.” In the wake of the defense industries there arose a booming economy based on technology. Its roots stretched back to 1938, when David Packard and his new wife moved into a house in Palo Alto that had a shed where his friend Bill Hewlett was soon ensconced. The house had a garage—an appendage that would prove both useful and iconic in the valley—in which they tinkered around until they had their first product, an audio oscillator. By the 1950s, Hewlett-Packard was a fast-growing company making technical instruments. Fortunately there was a place nearby for entrepreneurs who had outgrown their garages. In a move that would help transform the area into the cradle of the tech revolution, Stanford University’s dean of engineering, Frederick Terman, created a seven-hundred-acre industrial park on university land for private companies that could commercialize the ideas of his students. Its first tenant was Varian Associates, where Clara Jobs worked. “Terman came up with this great idea that did more than anything to cause the tech industry to grow up here,” Jobs said. By the time Jobs was ten, HP had nine thousand employees and was the blue-chip company where every engineer seeking financial stability wanted to work. The most important technology for the region’s growth was, of course, the semiconductor. William Shockley, who had been one of the inventors of the transistor at Bell Labs in New Jersey, moved out to Mountain View and, in 1956, started a company to build transistors using silicon rather than the more expensive germanium that was then commonly used. But Shockley became increasingly erratic and abandoned his silicon transistor project, which led eight of his engineers—most notably Robert Noyce and Gordon Moore—to break away to form Fairchild Semiconductor. That company grew to twelve thousand employees, but it fragmented in 1968, when Noyce lost a power struggle to become CEO. He took Gordon Moore and founded a company that they called Integrated Electronics Corporation, which they soon smartly abbreviated to Intel. Their third employee was Andrew Grove, who later would grow the company by shifting its focus from memory chips to microprocessors. Within a few years there would be more than fifty companies in the area making semiconductors. The exponential growth of this industry was correlated with the phenomenon famously discovered by Moore, who in 1965 drew a graph of the speed of integrated circuits, based on the number of transistors that could be placed on a chip, and showed that it doubled about every two years, a trajectory that could be expected to continue. This was reaffirmed in 1971, when Intel was able to etch a complete central processing unit onto one chip, the Intel 4004, tronic amplifier. “So I raced home, and I told my dad that he was wrong.” “No, it needs an amplifier,” his father assured him. When Steve protested otherwise, his father said he was crazy. “It can’t work without an amplifier. There’s some trick.” “I kept saying no to my dad, telling him he had to see it, and finally he actually walked down with me and saw it. And he said, ‘Well I’ll be a bat out of hell.’” Jobs recalled the incident vividly because it was his first realization that his father did not know everything. Then a more disconcerting discovery began to dawn on him: He was smarter than his parents. He had always admired his father’s competence and savvy. “He was not an educated man, but I had always thought he was pretty damn smart. He didn’t read much, but he could do a lot. Almost everything mechanical, he could figure it out.” Yet the carbon microphone incident, Jobs said, began a jarring process of realizing that he was in fact more clever and quick than his parents. “It was a very big moment that’s burned into my mind. When I realized that I was smarter than my parents, I felt tremendous shame for having thought that. I will never forget that moment.” This discovery, he later told friends, along with the fact that he was adopted, made him feel apart—detached and separate—from both his family and the world. Another layer of awareness occurred soon after. Not only did he discover that he was brighter than his parents, but he discovered that they knew this. Paul and Clara Jobs were loving parents, and they were willing to adapt their lives to suit a son who was very smart—and also willful. They would go to great lengths to accommodate him. And soon Steve discovered this fact as well. “Both my parents got me. They felt a lot of responsibility once they sensed that I was special. They found ways to keep feeding me stuff and putting me in better schools. They were willing to defer to my needs.” So he grew up not only with a sense of having once been abandoned, but also with a sense that he was special. In his own mind, that was more important in the formation of his personality. School Even before Jobs started elementary school, his mother had taught him how to read. This, however, led to some problems once he got to school. “I was kind of bored for the first few years


这是一个“比烂”的世界,由美国带头,世界各国跟进,大家都在比,谁比谁更烂


量化宽松,就是一个典型的“比烂政策”,经济不行了,就往市场里灌钱,一不行就灌钱,降息降准,甚至日本与欧盟灌到都是负利率,美国现在利率也降低到零


让热钱灌满市场,就能救经济了吗?


只不过是用虚华的荣景,将更大的危机往后拖,由如拿根塑料管吹泡泡,泡沫越吹越大,反射绚烂的阳光,但离爆炸越来越近


美国正在付出代价


眼前这场危机,美国最大的危险并不在于股市十天熔断四次,就算股市十天熔断十次,通过市场操作,它都能顶回来


这场重大危机,来自于债市,更准确的说是“能源债”



时间回到2008年,美国为那次的金融危机拿出药方“量化宽松”后,7800亿美元砸进市场


数之不尽的美元大水漫灌般涌了进来,钱进来了就必定要有去处,要么股票市场,要么实体经济


中国在那年代也搞“量化宽松”,我们的钱涌入了大基建和房地产,由此出现了国家越来越发达的高铁网络,以及越来越难以企及的房价


而美国当时有很大一笔钱,涌入了能源开发领域,尤其是页岩油气的开发


大量页岩油气公司如雨后春笋般出现,伴随着美国想从“石油进口国”成为“石油出口国”的野心,石化产业在这波量化宽松中,获得巨大注资



根据统计,美国页岩油气在过去这些年,共计获得了大约5万亿美元(约合35万亿人民币)的投资,这些巨量投资中,有很大一部分捆绑了高额的高收益债券


大家需要知道,页岩油气的开采技术需要突破,前期的设备和技术研发投入都相当昂贵


如果没有08年开始的量化宽松操作,美国页岩油气都不可能发展起来


但钱涌进来后,伴随着的就是从2010年开始,美国的开采技术不断提高,开采成本不断降低


大量注资,引领诸多开采技术上的突破,让原先开采一桶页岩油大约60美元的成本,每年都在下降,一直降低到现在的35-45美元一桶


页岩油气的开发,可以说是金融风暴后,美国为数不多的获得提升的实体经济



但这里面埋藏着一个巨大隐忧,就是大概从2009年发展起来的美国页岩商人们,有很多公司是通过发行高收益债券来融资


美国页岩油气商发行的高收益债,收益率在12%-20%之间不等,最高能达到20%


20%,是一个非常夸张的收益率了,代表着风险和收益并存


由于需要不断加大投资,不断研发新技术将开采成本压下来,美国油气商唯有不断通过高收益债的方式借钱


也就是用“借新还旧”的游戏模式来维持技术进步和产业扩张


今年借的钱,先还去年的


等等,这一招我们怎么这么熟悉?


这不就是中国伟大的房地产商们玩的套路吗?



是的,美国的页岩油气商,就是中国的房地产商


美国油气商人,玩的就是中国房地产商那一套


靠着市场热钱充足时,大举借债,还是高收益债,然后大规模开发,抢占圈地,年年借新还旧


久而久之,房产商的高债务就和整个国家的金融体系相互绑定了


这里面有一个一说大家就懂的逻辑


房价如果崩了,那房产商就会崩

房产商崩了,他们的债务也就崩了

他们的债务崩了,与之绑定的中国金融也会崩



现在,让我们把中国房产商,换成美国页岩油气商


一模一样的逻辑,一模一样的玩法


唯一不同的是,中国房价,国家不会让它崩


可国际油价,沙特和俄罗斯会联手让它崩


如此一来,油价崩,油商崩

油商崩,债务崩

债务崩,美国金融体系崩


根据高盛统计,光2020年,美国油气公司就有超过400亿美元的债务到期


而2020-2024年,共有超过2000亿美元的债务等着偿还


庞大的能源债务,成了背在美国身上最大的雷


2000亿美元的烂账,谁来还?


油价崩成那样,这笔钱,谁来还?


美国政府兜底吗?还是让美国人民还?


而且石化产业本就是共和党的大佬金主,石化产业在全美所雇佣的人数高达670万


670万人,就是670万张选票


2016年特朗普能当选的关键,就在于其在中西部摇摆州,尤其能获得石化煤炭等蓝领工人支持



美国政府不可能不知道它身上背着的“能源债务”有多重大,重大到能真正威胁到美国的国家安全


所以在特朗普上台后,就想尽了各种方法,帮美国解决这颗随时可能爆,一爆就山崩地裂的大雷



二,为了防止暴雷用尽各种手段



2017年6月,特朗普宣布将退出《巴黎气候协定》

2019年11月正式退出


特朗普还没上任时就一直嚷嚷着要退出,“巴协”其实是一个象征,象征着美国彻底推翻奥巴马时期的能源政策


退出“巴协”,代表的是美国能源政策到了必须大转向的时刻


能源政策的大转向有很多方面,其中一个重要的方向就是松绑美国的油气管道建设


一桶石油的成本大致分为两块,开采成本和运输成本


即,“挖出来”和“送出去”


“挖的成本”与“送的成本”,决定油商是赚是亏


然而


石油运输成本这几年不断升高,在2019年更是创下11年来新高



而根据信达证券所做的研报显示,美国一桶油的运输成本非常高


卡车运输每桶成本20美元

火车运输每桶成本10-15美元

管道运输每桶成本5美元



这可能超出大家想象,大家觉得大问题在开采成本,在油挖出来的成本,但其实不对


上面说了由于大量资金涌入石化产业,页岩油气的开采技术不断突破,开采成本不断下降


但“挖出来”的成本降了,“送出去”的成本却一直高企


真正的问题在运输成本


上图是美国7大页岩油商的每桶油成本,从40-60不等,当时是2016年


这几年成本略有下降,但也在大约在35-45之间


那这里就有个关键点,就是技术进步会越来越慢


技术进步的瓶颈会越来越高


你再想通过技术进步来压低开采成本也会越来越难


但油价又一直跌,那么怎么办呢?


最好的办法就是从运输成本下手


既然技术进步缓慢,那就降低运输成本


建石油管道,总比研发新技术要容易吧?


但过去奥巴马用各种环保政策,捆住美国的油气管道建设,待特朗普上台后,以退出“巴协”为起点,一项项废除奥巴马时期的政策


大幅松绑美国境内的油气管道建设


让美国国内那些环保主义者,统统闭嘴


其中最重要的是这条——基石输油管(Keystone Pipeline)



大家一听这名字“基石”,就了解它的重要性了,美国能源业的基石


这条管线从加拿大开始,贯穿整个美国,触及俄克拉荷马州“库欣油罐区”和输油管道中心


最后来到墨西哥湾


基石输油管分为好几期,最重要的一期是图上绿色线,也是之前奥巴马立阻的线路


但特朗普上台后大开绿灯,2017年3月,特朗普上台后没多久,就批准了基石的最新建设计划


如果基石输油管道全线完成,那将大幅降低美国页岩油的整体成本



从卡车运输的20美元降到管道运输的5美元

从火车运输的13美元降到管道运输的5美元


到时候也必定能把美国的页岩油气开采成本在现有基础上,再降低至少20%


这个幅度相当恐怖了


所以你说特朗普为什么要急着退出“巴协”,要急着批准被奥巴马咬住好几年的油气管道项目,这背后都是巨大的油气商生死存亡问题


特朗普如果不帮油气商,那上面提到了,这么多年的量化宽松搞下来,油气产业投资了至少5万亿美元,这里面有巨量的高收益债,借新还旧那套


他要是不帮着油气商降低成本,油气商崩溃,美国经济也会跟着崩



三,剿灭卖家,恐吓买家



特朗普誓死保卫美国油气商,主要通过三个方法


一个是上面提到的方法,降低成本

一个是下面要讲的方法,绞杀卖家

还有个是美国霸权方法,恐吓买家


油价很现实,买的人多,卖的人少,它就涨

反之,卖的人多,买的人少,它就跌


那特朗普要保护美国油气商,就很简单了


恐吓买家多买

绞杀卖家少卖


伊朗就理所当然的成了第一个被绞杀对象


下面几张图已经把问题说的很明白了



这是2007年-2018年,伊朗原油的年出口量


2007-2011年,平均每天出口250万桶


2013年开始,美国制裁伊朗,直接让伊朗石油出口腰斩,剩下100多万桶/日(图上巨大跌幅)


奥巴马上台,搞起亲和政策,石油换核武,放松制裁换取伊朗停止核试验


于是2015-2017年,伊朗石油出口起死回生,回复到平均200万桶/日


而今,特朗普上台,对伊朗重拳出击


于是



伊朗石油产量来到30年最低水平

伊朗,死了


美国石油产量超过沙特

美国,踩着伊朗尸体爬上来了


还不明白吗?


杀死敌人,吃了他的肉,才能让自己更强壮


只要特朗普还在台上,他代表的就是美国油气商利益,那伊朗是必死的


伊朗死后,下一个目标就是俄罗斯


四,斩断俄罗斯与欧洲的能源关系


上面提到要保护美国油气商,两个方法:


恐吓买家多买

绞杀卖家少卖


绞杀卖家少卖,是对伊朗的做法,但也同样适用于俄罗斯


我们来看一个能极大助力于俄罗斯与欧洲友好的建设项目



北溪二号从俄罗斯出发,走“波罗的海”海底管道,将俄罗斯天然气直接送进德国


对俄罗斯来说,主要是靠能源和原材料的出口来维持经济,而卖天然气的收入占俄联邦财政的贡献率高达45%


光德国一家的天然气,就有40%是问俄罗斯买的


可以说一个天然气,把俄罗斯和德国紧紧绑在一起


俄罗斯不想和欧洲彻底翻脸,欧洲也不想和俄罗斯搞僵


况且有着庞大的能源生意在那,搞僵不符合双方利益


但美国人不乐意了,欧俄友好不符合美国利益



俄罗斯为什么要搞北溪2号?


因为美国把原本俄罗斯能源送往欧洲的重要路线给搞死了


几年前美国挑唆乌克兰革命,让乌克兰和俄罗斯彻底撕破脸,过去大量的俄罗斯能源都是经由乌克兰运入欧洲的


而俄乌交恶后,这条线就断了


所以俄罗斯才想着在北溪1号的基础上,再搞北溪2号天然气管道,直接绕开乌克兰、波兰,这些个极度反俄的欧洲国家,直接把天然气打进欧洲中心德国


也省得美国在东欧继续生事,断俄罗斯天然气生意命脉


北溪天然气项目的诞生,里面藏着这么层意思,波兰和乌克兰现在都是极度反俄的


那美国怎肯善罢甘休,他怎么可能看着你俄罗斯的算盘打响呢?


美国是想尽了办法,要把“北溪天然气”搞黄


说来滑稽,这俄罗斯和德国做生意,关你美国什么事啊,你又不是买方,也不是卖方,在这瞎掺和


可郭德纲一句话说的好啊,只有同行才是赤裸裸的仇恨


随着美国页岩气开采商业化的成功以及墨西哥湾沿岸出口设施的开通,美国向欧洲出口天然气的所有条件均已成熟


东西齐备了,就等着卖给欧洲数钱了


加上这几年反核运动轰轰烈烈,欧洲关闭核电厂,需要大量石油与天然气来发电


其中欧盟70%的天然气需要进口,这70%的大蛋糕,俄罗斯多吃一口,美国就少吃一口


你说美国能不急吗?


于是,特朗普出手了


特朗普以威胁美国国家安全为名,签署的国防授权法案中,就明确说了:


所有参与和帮助俄罗斯天然气公司进行管道建设的欧洲公司和个人,其美国签证和在美财产,都将被冻结


美国刀子捅出来了,所有帮俄罗斯造这条该死的“北溪管道”的人,不管你是公司还是个人,都将被美国制裁


美国不讲道理的干涉他国正常的能源交易


结果


北溪2管道安装项目,已然暂停


欧州人还是怕美国制裁,人家一刀砍过来,你赤手空拳,能怎么办呢?


跑呗,难道还和美国制裁硬碰硬吗?


美国为了自身的油气商利益,搞完了伊朗就来搞俄罗斯


但俄罗斯又怎么是省油的灯,去年底就把话放那了



本以为俄罗斯只是嘴上喊喊的嘴炮,没想到普京趁着这波新冠疫情,真想要了美国的命



五,美国对日韩的恐吓



恐吓买家多买

绞杀卖家少卖


美国的两个手段


通过制裁伊朗和制裁北溪,美国绞杀卖家市场


那剩下的手段,恐吓买家多买,就用在了小老弟日本和韩国头上


去年特朗普全球打贸易战,一个也没少


日本韩国对美都有着绝对贸易逆差,特朗普以加征关税为恐吓手段,逼迫日韩解决逆差问题


而解决的方法也很简单粗暴,就是多买美国的油气产品和农产品


韩国,保护费先交起来


在去年短短两个月内,韩国就大手笔进口美国1800万桶原油,90万吨液化天然气(LNG)


要知道,韩国过去80%的石油和50%的液化天然气都是从中东进口的


但以后可能没中东什么事了,美国要来抢能源这块大蛋糕了


大家看看下面这张图就什么都懂了



这是历年来美国对韩国出口的石油和天然气数量


2014,2015,2016年韩国从美进口的石油和天然气几乎可以忽略不计


可特朗普上台后,2017,2018年,进口暴涨


这种肉眼可见的暴涨幅度,说明了一切


讲白了就是特朗普拿着把刀子,架在韩国人脖子上


美国:买不买天然气?


韩国:买买买


美国:石油呢?


韩国:买买买



韩国很快投降了,那日本呢?大家觉得安倍又能撑多久?



早在2017年特朗普刚上台几个月,日本就将成为美国天然气的最大买家了


这里面有日本自身的原因,福岛核灾后日本大量关闭核电站,造成天然气成为其主要的电力生产燃料


而美国油气商开采出的大量页岩气也需要找个倾销的市场



从历史数据来看,2016年美日贸易逆差600亿美元

同样在2016年,日本就花了300亿美元来买美国天然气


日本公用事业公司,在美国强大的外交威逼下,同意2020年前购买总计不少于1400万吨的美国天然气


1400万吨液化天然气,相当于美国同期出口总额的20%


光日本一家,就接了美国天然气20%的盘


那大家也许会问,石油呢?日本买美国石油吗?那就要来看详细数据了



就目前来看日本主要进口的是中东石油,占比高达85%,这其中主要原因是原油品质问题


日本更需要轻质低硫原油,较重的低硫原油日本只拿来发电



但从2019年开始,随着美国页岩油技术改良,以及特朗普贸易战大棒的威胁下,日本1-8月突然加大进口美国的轻质低硫油(WTI)


这是未来的一个必然趋势,只要美国油商能挺过这轮油价崩盘,未来美国油气必然更大规模登陆日本



2019年一整年,美国来势汹汹,一边剿灭卖家,一边恐吓买家


2020年,特朗普本想故技重施,谁曾想天降大敌,新冠病毒将世界搅的一片乱


更要命的是,原本一直被动,美国一直想剿灭的俄罗斯,此时突然展开了绝地大反击


六,俄罗斯的反扑



俄罗斯4年前加入OPEC(石油输出国组织)形成OPEC PLUS,这让俄罗斯和中东国家从原先的竞争对手转为合作伙伴


双方约定,未来在原油市场共同进退,事先谈好产量和配额,控制油价在一个能够获利的稳定区间


这个友谊,只维持了四年


3月6号,OPEC召开紧急会议,主要议题是“疫情当前,石油需求大减,各产油国一起减少产量,稳定油价


沙特在会议上提出该提案,其他成员都点头赞成,轮到俄罗斯能源部长诺瓦克表态时,诺瓦克不客气的当场拒绝减产提议


OPEC 秘书长 巴尔金在接受采访时说:


俄罗斯很尊重OPEC协议,当年我努力促成俄罗斯加入,这四年里我们都合作的很愉快


但目前双方有一点分歧,俄罗斯称因国内情况特殊,无法减产


但我有信心,他们会很快回到谈判桌的


显然OPEC秘书长拼命打圆场,双方分歧目前根本难以调和,沙特俄罗斯两大石油巨头根本就已撕破脸


周五俄罗斯能源部长翻脸走人


周六沙特当局,立刻祭出报复措施


沙特主动通知多位大客户将大幅下调原油报价,此外还要将原油出口量从原来每天的1000万桶,一口气拉高到一天出口1200万桶


也就是说,在全世界封城,停工,停飞的背景下,沙特、俄国非但不减产,反而产能全开,搞一个石油满贯全世界


那你说油价能不崩吗?


沙特和俄罗斯大打“石油战”,然而却都醉翁之意不在酒



经过美国的绞杀,如今世界石油市场的“大玩家”就只剩三个了,沙特,俄罗斯,美国


而且美国这条石油产量的黄色曲线增长颇为强劲,追赶速度之快,让沙特和俄罗斯心生恐惧


沙特是美国盟友,但如果能借俄罗斯之手,杀一下美国油商,何乐而不为呢?


在沙特眼里,俄罗斯你不同意减产是吧?你要增产是吧?


行,那我比你增产更多,我还要通知我的大客户,我这的油大降价


俄罗斯这边,也产能全开,并且对外放话称:俄罗斯能在油价25-30美元的情况下,支撑6-10年


什么意思?大家熬呗,看谁能熬死谁


沙特也放话,你能撑6-10年是吧,我沙特5000亿美元储备,能撑10-15年,看谁更久


两边叫嚣,美国可撑不起,一开始说了,美国油商借助于当年“量化宽松”期间,每年每年的大举放高收益债,用借新还旧的手法,获得大笔资金后投入页岩油开发



在面临此波巨大冲击时,石油生产商Apache、Devon和Murphy Oil已决定削减了三分之一的预算


美国最大的页岩油生产商之一西方石油(Occidental Petroleum)上周宣布无法按期支付28亿美元股息,也无法维持现有产量


公司市值一度从去年高位460亿美元缩水至110亿美元


什么意思?


就是美国最大的页岩油生产商已经还不起钱了呗


消息一出,美国西方石油,股票崩溃



西方石油(OCCIDENTAL)在上一轮的暴跌潮中,股价暴跌38.8%


其他石化厂商,也是一片哀嚎


这些石化厂商,油价稳定时还能过日子,油价一旦下跌,甚至碰到今天这种大幅度闪崩,那大量油商的资金链必然断裂


负债累累,还不出钱,高收益债违约


油价崩跌,股市熔断,金融危机浮现



面对这一切


特朗普陷入了长长的沉默


老子这几年都白忙了


哀叹之余,不由得喊出那一句,上帝保佑美国



3月16日,特朗普喊出“上帝保佑美国”


同日,美股第三次熔断


3月18日,美股第四次熔断


3月25日,美国全境50州全部沦陷,全美确诊病例突破54893例


美国,危险了...


国运,正在扭转…

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